Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Poor use of statistics: Voter Turn Out edition

From an article about the high voter turn out expected this year:

McDonald said early voting is often a good prediction of the level of turnout on Election Day, and heavy early voting indicates that the turnout this year undoubtedly would exceed the 60 percent turnout in the 2004 election.

"We have a very good chance of beating the 64 percent turnout in the 1960 election," McDonald said. "We really could be looking at a historic election in modern American history."

That race saw the highest level of turnout in American history, save for the 66 percent in the 1908 presidential election.

Which bring up the point, why not just refer to the 1908 election as the record?

PS - I am the Home Run King in baseball - except for anyone who hit more home runs than me.

PPS - This is going to be a record positive year for the S&P 500 except for all of the years that actually were positive, and then exclude all of the "less negative years"


Martha said...

That "PS" made me laugh so loud I almost spewed water threw my nose!

KJ said...

Geico routinely broadcasts:

"Save up to 15% or more on car insurance."

In other words, you could save between 0% and an infinite amount. They've provided no information. "up to...or more" statements have no meaning.